Just to give background on mobile data technology evolution as categorize by International Mobile Telecommunication (IMT):
- GPRS/Edge : 2.5G , which is offered by GSM Mobile operators in India
- IMT-2000 systems : This is known as 3G today for example UMTS and cdma2000.
- Enhanced IMT-2000 systems: The evolution of IMT-2000 system, for example HSPA, CDMA 1xEvDo. This is offered by CDMA operator and GSM mobile will offer it as part of 3G.
- IMT advance systems - systems in this category are considered to be 4G systems. LTE and WIMAX are competing in this space.
I have seen advertising of one of the CDMA operator mentioning 3G like speed. Is end user really bothered about 3G , 4G what end user need is following:
- Value for money : Cost of mobile broadband vs benefits.
- Speed of connectivity and mobility : This is perceived speed of using applications and ability to use mobile broadband on move or at any place. coverage is important.
- Quality of handset: Display , battery life , ease of use.
- Applications : Consumer segment will be dominated by social networking, music downloads, video clips. Enterprise segment will have email usage and access to enterprise applications. There is high business potential in enabling enterprise applications like inventory check, sales orders, on time delivery update etc through mobile handset. This will definitely increase productivity. Specialized segments for m-Health, m-education etc .
Mobile broadband penetration in word over has taken approx 5 years to reach to 30% penetration. It needs to be seen how fast penetration will happen in India. Rate of penetration will depend upon:
1. Tariff plans : We all know that India is the most elastic market in terms of penetration with effective cost price changes. Also whether it will be fixed , usage based or variable needs to be seen. High bandwidth consuming could be charged premium fees compared to other applications.
2. Quality of Service and Coverage: This will be the most challenging during initial phase of launch and will take time to address.
2. Cost per byte: Operator needs to spend huge money to build networks. Already cost of 3G auction has put tremendous pressure on balance sheet of operators which may force them to focus on high ARPU (Average Revenue per user) customers, thereby offering mobile broadband at high cost to start with and slowly penetrate other segments. Therefor , operator need to have low cost per byte business model the way they have been able to do for voice minutes.
3. Availability and cost of handset : 3G enabled handset and cost price for same.
4. Content providers applications : Availability of segmented application by content providers
All the four ecosystem as mentioned above need to work together to make mobile broadband a success in India.
We must also learn from undeveloped countries like Bangladesh, Nigeria etc where simple mobile applications have been helpful in enabling rural population. This will require participation of both government agencies, industry and operators to take benefits to rural.
Those who have 3G/BWA spectrum and those who have opted out will play active role in offering data services. CDMA/GSM operators who have not got spectrum can compete effectively in data service as network will evolve in terms of coverage and speed will be key in relation to perceived quality of user and contents being used.
On LTE and Wimax , looks most of mobile operator will adopt to LTE . LTE still need 3-4 yrs to mature to have all ecosystem in place. Till then Wimax and LTE deployment will coexist. Wimax will rule segmented markets like smart grids etc and may be used by mobile operator to backhaul LTE in future when LTE matures.
Broadband penetration has direct like to GDP of any country. Its a big opportunity to contribute towards GDP growth and we should ensure that Telecom policies drive broadband penetration.
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