My Blog : Great Indian Telecom Boom whats store for Operators and Customers

India have witnesses fast growth bith in terms of number of subscribers , coverage and introduction of mobile broadband.

Some stats for Indian telecom growth

1. 860 mn subscribers as of July 2011 expected to cross 1000 mn by 2013.
2. Addition of 15 mn subscribers per month
3. Three lakhs cell sites expected to grow to 4.5 lakhs by 2015

4. Rural teledensity stands at 33 % whereas urban is touching 100 %

5. Average revenue per subscriber (ARPU) 150-200 INR

Some stats on India

1. Popullation at 1.2 billion

2. 77% lives in Rural and 23 % in Urban

3. 50 % below 25 yrs and 65 % below 35 yrs

Operator perspective

- Past two years have seen licenses being allocated which has increased competition and have driven prices to abysmal low. This has resulted in addition of subscribers but overall profits have not responded proportionally.

- 3G aution has been very expensive affairs for operators .

-With profit growth hampered along with cost of 3G roll out means cost optimization will be key driver for operators.

Some of the initiatives envisaged includes:

1. Becoming lead operator : We have seen realignmnet of manpower which has led to lay off by major operators in recent past . This is only one part of being lean , it has to be supported by systems and processes E2E otherwise actual benefits will short fall.

2. Power is major operation cost of network accounting for 60 % . Two billion litres of diesel is consumed each year by telecom operator which is huge amount and leads to higher outlay . Alternate source of fuel like solar system have huge cost barrier . This area of alternate energy requires innovation and governmant support .

3. Optimize infrastructure sharing , which will be more important for rural and semi urban areas.

4. Business analytics to drive decisions with so many information in multiple systems

5. Customer insight to drive personalized products/offerings

I dont think Indian operators will have time to take challenge or take pie from over the top operators like facebook, google, apple etc . Operators will be mere pipe provider , will be spending time in operations and evolving networks to 3G to LTE in near future.

Customer Perscpective

1. One of the cheapest telecom services rates

2. Mobile broadband services providing on move access to internet and applications with Smartphone penetration

3. Offerings of application from over the top providers ex apple , google etc

4. Service Quality like speed will be not the key differentiator for customer as all operators will have more and less same quality but operator with better coverage will be winner.

5. Bundling of products personalized to end user will be lucrative offer to catch customer mindset

In my opinion , operator which can work on below three aspect will be winner in long run

1. lean operator: In terms of cost of running business , agile time to market products .

2. Better rural strategy

3. Capture mindset of Indian Youth

MY BLOG : Wishing all great citizens HAPPY INDEPENDENCE DAY . Year gone by and how we go about to be developed nation

Wishing all citizens of this Great nation "Happy Independence Day". I am proud of being born and brought up in India. Country is full of heroism, diversity and infinite things to learn.

We Indians have been aspiring to be developed nation and still I feel we have been struggling. We have come long way and still stand in illusion to touch destinity.

Positives for India

1. We have stable GDP growth.

2. Globally we have transformed being recognized as emerging economy and India companies are competing globally in IT, Telecom, Automobile etc

3. We have vibrant young population which is very positive sign .

These positives is overshadowed by key issues which none of the government is able to find way out :

1. Rural - Urban divide : Benefits of liberalization has created big urban and rural divide . What I feel this can only be bridged by :
- Focus on agriculture reforms : Land reforms , enhancing productivity yield , fair price , wastage which is 30 % o and rural coperative socities like Amul

2. Education System : Our governmanr schools have failed to deliver education in recent past . Its not due to lack of education or quality teachers but lack of accountability. Mr Kapil Sibbal talks a lot about education reforms but has no vision on how to take education to roots , best he can do is open FDI for foreign universities which will target high end market but our problem of government aided quality eduaction will be untouched.

3. Health System: I feel very shamefull when I see only AIIMS being the hospital for ages. We have seen private hospitals coming up but very few are committed for poor patient treatment although have been allocated land to ensure certain % of treatment for poor.

4. Infrastructure : Pressure on infrastructure have increased over years and pace of infrastructure have been lacklustre. You travel on Delhi-Jaipur, Delhi-Chandigarh , Triangle connectin in NCR have been initiated 12 years and still not complete .

What does this means and what should government and we citizens are expected to do to touch that last mile of being developed nations.

This requires holistic approach focussed on:

1. Role of Government and Private particiaption : Government have to be very clear about what is there role and where they should focus. Education , Health and infrastructure are three areas where government is required to participate actively with engagement of private participation. Give concession in urban areas and take commitment for rural development .I dont think any industrilist will mind if intentions are clear.

2. Identify 5 key new industries besides IT, automobile and start developing expertise , efficiency to compete at global level.

3. Over privatization without accountability and weak governance will lead to leaving citizens at mercy of dumping , unhygienic products, substandard quality and services. Government should provide effective governance, lay out specification on standards and grievance resolution.

4. Agricluture and distribution needs use of better technology. I believe coperative society is better model for India.

5. Judiciary , Police and municipal corporation needs overhauling.

Except point 5 , other are something which is implementable and can be easlily done but requires leader who leads country from front with clear message and passion to deliver.

Its disheartening we have honest PM with most scams , we have intellectual PM who lacks leadership and passion for India to take to next stage .

" We need leader who can lead India to nest stage , with each year we are loosing steps in forward direction and unfortunately Gandhi grandson have not shown enough promise till now to fit role of leader required"

Testimony to above is how many of us look forward to hear our leader address to nation on independence day.

As citizen of India , I do have duties which I pledge to do :

1. We are unbalance society with huge divide between rich and poor. We should contribute back to society by contribution in terms of monetory, clothes , food etc.

2. At home do save money , water, electricity and food.

3. As parents we develop good citizens

4. In office provide better work environment for emplyees as Manager or leader

5. Protect environment by not throwing garbage on roads , plant trees

6. Lastly and most important dont pay bribe for small things like traffic challan, water connection etc .

Opinion expressed are my personal and I firmly believe we as nation stand out in terms of citizens , rich cuture and value. We need to take charge in whatver means to be "Good Citizens" . let government leads through capable leader to see us being Developed Nation.

JAI HIND

MY BLOG - Vivek Madan : With human spending maximum time with machine , is there danger of human being glorified machine in future.

Technology innovations are fascinating and always if done in right direction have huge impact on society. Companies like Apple , Google , Microsoft, facebook have been front runner in innovating products and changing our life .

Question arises :
1. How do u balance innovation and its impact on human lives.
2. Is there need to have regulation on who can use technology or not in this world where freedom to live life is given.

High innovative impact to scoiety has been brought by :
1. Driven by Mobile Smartphone
2. Penetration of high speed mobile broadband
3. Entertainment contents - Games , Music , Videos
4. Open platform to develop and deliver applications

What's the impact on society :
1. iPhone and other smartphone have changed our experience of using devices and along with backend ecosystem of games, music , videos and application to meet individual and business needs.
2. Business can be done from anywhere using mobile broadband services and access to business applications.
3. Increased revenue for people even poor daily wagers - plumber , taxi driver , labor etc by using simple phone
4. Social netwoking site facebook has changed the way we interact and share with each other . This has helped us to update our status, liking , photos and more importantly connect to old friends. Even business has understood using it for marketing and taking feedback.

That sounds good , but key question arises what the negative side:
1. Addiction to smartphone this can be gauged by our anxiety if don't use it for a while. Smartphone being key companion.
2. Being on facebook to overcome loneliness , looking forward to chat and expecting comment . Lack of human touch and intercation.
3. Adiicted to applications particularly games

Overall human behaviour is changing and needs are fulfilled by machine, software etc .

Look at impact of this on kids who needs atmosphere of natural growth and learning . Question arises :
1. Does all above at early age good for them ?
2. If not then how do we keep they away till certain age?

What i feel its important to have following in place :
1. Usage of product should be regulated at certian age .
2. Parents should be more educated of its negative impact ,
3. Parents need to regulate themselves
- I see parents have kids below 13 on facebook and they take pride in same.
- Due to busy schedule and our inability to handle kids patiently , we pust them towards gadgets use for games , facebook etc .

World of future is all about connected machines and human being through smartohones and social site . We still have time to protect kids from being lost into this web of virtual work at young age.
They have age to enjoy nature , learn natural sports and learn through experience.

Is it the responsiblity of only parenst to protect kids or innovation makes also have duties towards society or regulation is the way .

Opinion expressed above are personnal , u are welocome to comment and suggest.

MY BLOG : Vivek Madan - Make mobile-Profit (M-Profit) by considering 5 key elements of sevices that allow value to user and profit to operators

What makes mobile services successfull by building more value so that user is willing to pay for the service and service penetrates mass adoptation. This has been a big question for application developers and service providers.

Lets look into those principles guided by 5M behavior of product success in mobile domain. These are :

1. Movement - Escaping the fixed place

Movement is the attribute most obvious to mobile phones. Movement means abiity of service to escape limit of locations, meaning service will seem perfect regardless of location. Example of such services are :

- Simplest form for Movement is ability make voice call, send SMS and use data services on move whether ar home location or roaming.

- Guiding services : "How can I get there" . Services keep track of mobile user location at any point in time and whenever user wants to find his way to other location ex restaurant , coffee shop, multiple routes to destination can simply ask mobile phone for guidance .

- Fleet Management: This includes tracking taxis , buses, logistic vehicles , ATM van, field support staff etc through location and optimizing based on proximity and redirecting resources on what if analysis ex : based on proximity , moving empty vehicle to cover deliveries on route .

2. Moment - expanding the concept of time

This includes concept of time like need at time , postponing, doing things with idle time, follow up on missed things etc Example of such services are:

- Search on needs basis : You are moving to meeting and car broke down on click finding carrage or u are no feeling well, needs immediate attention searching for nearby doctor location and profile . You will be ready to pay for search services as it arises out of need at particular time/situation.

- You are intereted in watching cricket match but struck up in traffic. You can subscribe to multimedia alerts of live match so that u catch all moments.

3. Me - extending myself and my community

Me is all about personalization to user and customizing contents based on user interests, hobbies , community
- Hello tunes on phone has been high generating service for operators as its able to customize tunes played when some on call selected by end user.
- Customized FM based on songs u like can be notified and delivered on mobile when being played on FM.

- Customized events related to sports, business etc can be delivered the moment they happen .

4. Money - expending financial

This include aspect of being able to pay from mobile handset or being included in mobile bill.

- Buying and booking tickets for airways, rails and shows through mobile.

- Credit cards have limitation om min demonination u can may . For example u can not pay through credit for 50 paise - 2 Rs such transactions offering can only be enabled through mobile bills.

- Taking location services further to m-coupons , u can search restaurants and Pizza hut cna put ad to attract customer once user selects ad and submit for coupon sms send to user whihc he can show at Pizza cut and gets relevant discount .

5. Machines - empowering gadgets

The last is device to perform activities and communicate.

- Car noticing need for oil change and scheduling service vist to garrage.

- Sending alerts once stock price crosses limit.

- Communicating wth automatic ticket system for check in and ticket booking.

The more a service has M factor the more it will be successful. Design services keeping M factors in mind and u will find the more M u can add more chances for adoptation in market.

My Blog: Vivek Madan - With tough Competition in Indian Mobile Sector , Is aquision similar to AT&T and T Mobile make sense in Indian context

Recently AT&T decided to merge T-Mobile with AT&T positioned at No 2 and T-Mobile at No 4 . Two big giants in USA decided to merge .

Indian market has been competitive and flooded with operators approx 9 . Is merger and acquisition on cards in Indian context. Questions to be answered:

• Will any of Top 4-5 will merge together
• Will any of Top 4 will merge with small operator

Lets see comparison of USA and India market in context :

USA Market

• Subscribers:USA has 4 operators with AT&T (92 mn) and T-Mobile (34 mn) being the largest GSM operators. The two other Tier 1 US wireless carriers Verizon (96 mn) and Sprint Nextel (48 mn) are CDMA operators. Then there are local players like Metro PCS (8 mn) and Leap Wireless (7mn).
  

• Revenue: Average ARPU = $50 , Data as % of revenue =30%-35%
• Products : Bundle smart phones.
• Technology : 3G, HSPA, WIMAX , EVDO , LTE.

For non technical readers Data services on GSM has evolved from GPRS/Edge to 3G(UMTS) to HSPA, HSPA+ and introduction of LTE networks.

Lets understand why AT&T aquired T-Mobile :

• Addresses wireless spectrum challenges facing AT&T, T-Mobile USA, their customers, and U.S. policymakers

-Provides the spectrum and network efficiencies necessary for AT&T to address impending spectrum exhaust in key markets driven by the exponential growth in mobile broadband traffic on its network.
-Because AT&T has led the U.S. in smart phones, tablets and e-readers – and as a result, mobile broadband – it requires additional spectrum before new spectrum will become available.

• Improves service quality for U.S. wireless customers

AT&T and T-Mobile USA customers will see service improvements - including improved voice quality - as a result of additional spectrum, increased cell tower density and broader network infrastructure.

• Coverage and Expands 4G LTE deployment to 95 percent of U.S. population – urban and rural areas

- AT&T will immediately gain cell sites equivalent to what would have taken on average five years to build without the transaction, and double that in some markets.
- Combined AT&T and T-Mobile will be able to deliver LTE service to 46 million more Americans than they could separately.

Key Message from above are :
- Mobile Data Growth is implied reason needing spectrum, coverage and faster LTE roll out
- Its not about aquiring subscribers through merger

Government Concern are:
- AT&T and T Mobile merger will create Duopoly with Verizon .
- Will this eroded competitive landscape and government wants more competition in data services
- Will this serve good for US economy and government aspiration to have 95% penetration of data services.

Lets see how this compares to Indian market which has seen full controversies with 2G spectrum.

INDIA Market

• Subscribers:India has 9 active operators with Airtel (142 mn) , Reliance (115mn), Vodafone (113 mn) , TATA(80 mn), Idea (72mn) , BSNL (70 mn) , Aircel (44mn ) followed by small operators who were given licenses under controversial scam.
  

• Revenue: Average ARPU = INR 200-250 , Data as % of revenue =15%, Teledensity= 67%
  
• Products : Bundle expensive smart phones but unbundled phones mostly
• Technology : 3G, HSPA, WIMAX , EVDO with LTE on horizon
  

Recent Market trends (last 2 years)

• Penetration of smart phones
  
• Focus on data services with roll out of 3G networks by all major operators with exception of new 2G license operators who opted out of 3G race
  
• 3G auction with exorbitant spectrum prices driven by lack of 2G spectrum as paid high price in circles where they are market leaders for voice.
  
• No Pan India 3G provider , meaning 3G roaming will be reality
  
• Broadband WirelessAccess (BWA) licenses in bits and pieces with Reliance as Pan India player, this allows use of LTE for data services. Looks LTE action will happen in near future.
  

Mergers case in India

• New license operators financial condition is not good will look for partner. Existing Indian operators interest in them is very bleak. Foreign operator may invest to expand into emerging market.
• Data growth is at initial stage , operators are still in roll out stage making merger distant dream . Once data reaches to 50% of revenue this may change as spectrum , coverage , service quality vs individual investment may push for merger.
  
• Operator will look by circle before collaborating merger , Pan India merger looks remote.

Summary
Acquisition trends are shifting more into synergy driven by
- Technology adopted and maturity like LTE, HSPA, WiFi etc . If operators see one is in advance stages of roll out , other can leverage same.
-Spectrum and network coverage synergy
- Data service will be key decision criteria
- Acquisition into different continents will continue.

My Blog: Vivek Madan - Is India loosing direction in Economic Growth : Revolution like Middle East can happen in India. Power of People

Last 2-3 years brings forwards lots of things to ponder :
- Scam worth thousands of crores (Spectrum , Common Wealth etc )
- Wealth by manupulating policies and resources of country
- Helpless of leader to reign government
- Lack of leader to take this country to league of super power

I think worlds biggest democracy has to handle these developments carefully as citizens of this country are frustrated on various accounts :
- Unemployment , although government says of 10% GDP growth
- Decline in poverty line with inflation at peak seems confusing
- Proper and affortable Education and Health services available to mass. Ask your driver and maid , they will tell issues on same.
- Large scale looting of natural resources into hands of business houses making their wealth grow exponentially. Scams , the way lands are allocated for SEZ (Speacial economic zone), oil /gas exploration , telecom licenses etc to name few.
- Lack of inspiring leader . How may of us look forward to hear our leader during republic day , independence message. Atleast not me.
- You can travel from Metro to other parts and can easily witness the gap. Which clearly means hardly 10 -20 % of population is reaping the benefits.
- Agriculture is one which has maximum impact on our economy and is the one which is left to GOD to take care.

During Finance budget , I see people glued to TV sets . In my last 2o years , i have never understood how it will impact my and ordinary citizens life. Its all about taxes , FDI etc .

There is ugent need to draft Vision for India and Government should present yearly to citizens with scorecard on its performance. This must include:
- Whats its plan to provide affordable Education , Health and Living . This is key and in simple terms citizens should connect and appreciate.
- Focus on 5-6 Industries proactively where india can be top 3 , rather than leaving to business houses .
- Articulate and regulate clear policies where applicable for next ten years.
- Protect consumer agains dumping , low standard products ex Gold Drinks, medicines etc . Are we not sesitive to Health of Indians ?
- Involve civil citizens in key decisions , shaping future

Recent agitation by Anna Hazare is testimony to the fact that although we have democratic elected leadership . Unrest like one in Egypt , Libya are possible in India , only it requires trigger and thoughtful leadership like Mahatma Gandhi to lead who united India for cause.

Its time our leaders realize power of citizens , otherwise day is not far when small phase of economic depression can have huge unrest in India.

Its high time India need a leader who can take this country into league of super power. We need leaders and not economist to lead country. We don't need image sensitive leaders who wants to potray themselves weak and allows mass corruption under , also leader who can realize India potention rather then playing into hands of appeasing USA and other nation.

Above are my personnal assessment and you may have different opinion. Those who are harping benefits of economic growth may not agree , I am also one of them but as general citizen we all feel there is something wrong the way India is being led at this time.

JAI HIND

My BLOG : Vivek Madan - Simple Mobile Cell Service Can Save Many Lives

There has been lots of frequent disasters on large scale across world. No one can imagine disaster hitting Japan who has invested heavily on technology - Thousands have been killed and injured so far, but the loss of life has likely been limited by three vital early warning technologies: a new earthquake alert system; an ocean-based tsunami warning system and a mobile phone disaster warning service.

Japan has the world's most advanced earthquake early-warning system, with more than 1,000 seismographs scattered over the country. Collectively, they detect tremors and allow for brief advance warnings not only to vulnerable sectors like railroads and utilities - so they can slow down high-speed trains and shut off gas lines - but also to the public.Tsunami warnings take longer to generate. Residents of the hardest-hit areas in Japan likely only had fifteen minutes warning.

Communicating alerts to mass citizens effectively has become critical.Little-known technology known as Cell broadcast , a GSM feature for that has been around for many years, is barely utilized and could be effective in saving many life in future.

What is Cell broadcast/Network broadcast :

1. It's totally unlike traditional, point-to-point SMS, in that it can be broadcast directly from cell towers to every phone in range and does not use more bandwidth when sent to more users.

2. In this way it's just like a over-the-air television or radio, where bandwidth requirements do not increase as more users receive a signal.

3. Handset can be set to have cell broadcast enabled or disabled.

4. Cell Broadcast allows messages (up to 15 pages of up to 93 characters) to be broadcast to all mobile handsets from those on a single cell to the entire network.

Linked to the fact that most people now carry mobile phones with them at all times it becomes the most powerful means of mass-communication available. TV and radio warnings only work if people are using those mediums, but messages to mobile devices are focussed, fast and effective.

Maybe we, as an industry, should make this feature more readily available, particularly to emergency services, and educate customers how to set it up, where necessary, and how to respond should an emergency broadcast message be received.

Its time that Indian government use Cell broadcast technology effectively to communicate mass information during disasters.

My BLOG: Vivek Madan- Wishing all citizens A Happy Republic Day . Telecom has come a long way - Indian Citizens are the King. Lots more to be done

First of let me wish all citizens " Happy Republic Day". India has always withstood crisis and stand tall whenever demanded , all credit goes to people of India , their values.


Come 2011 we have taken one more step in offering citizens power to change operators while retaining mobile number. This service is know as Mobile Number Portability (MNP).

Time has come where combination of below will dictate who will gain with MNP in place:
1. Brand of company . Here existing operators Airtel and Vodafone will leverage as they are trusted brands in telecom.

2. Product offering and Pricing : Not only pricing of single service but bundled offerings of multiple services targeted at correct segmentation will be key.

3. Customer Service: Ability to call call center and resolve issue first time in friendly manner.

4. Quality of network: Experience of customer when they use services in terms of coverage, mobility, call drops, speed of connect and access applications.


All this sounds good for end user and in the end customer will be king. Customer needs to be very clear about why he wants to change is it better products, prices, service quality.


There is no doubt that broadband will be key for accelerating economic growth of country and telecom will play very important role in dividing urban rural disparity.
This can be done by :

1. Mobile Wireless will drive broadband penetration , jointly create passive infrastructure to leverage penetration to rural and incentive to providers in terms of taxes, license and equipment duties for rural telephony.

2. Long term telecom policy in place.

3. Applications to empower poor and villages like mobile banking , insurance , market updates, crop advices with partnership model (banks, insurance, FMCG etc )

4. Partnering to deliver e-Education and e-Health to rural areas.



We as an individuals must understand , India is country with unequal opportunities and divide between urban -rural, rich-poor is very wide. Its time we all make active contribution in our ways to bridge this divide not only through monetary contribution but actively engaging .



JAI HIND